Disasters & Accidents · The Record
NHC outlook cuts Windward Islands wave to near 0 percent, holds Cabo Verde low at 70 percent
Three consecutive Tropical Weather Outlooks, read in sequence: a system Monday coverage carried at 10 percent was at near 0 percent by Tuesday morning, while the lead system's 70 percent never moved.
The National Hurricane Center's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 800 AM EDT Tuesday keeps three areas under watch and puts one of them at near zero.
The lead system, an area of low pressure the outlook places about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, carries a formation chance of 30 percent through 48 hours and 70 percent through seven days, according to the outlook, signed Forecaster Adams/Pasch. The text is more committal than the odds: it states that "a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week."
The second area is the one that changed. In the outlook issued at 800 PM EDT Monday, signed Forecaster Blake, a tropical wave then about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands stood at 10 percent through both 48 hours and seven days, and the text stated: "Some gradual development of this system is possible through midweek". Twelve hours later the same wave, now titled East of the Windward Islands and placed about 600 miles east of them, is at near 0 percent in both windows. The Tuesday text states: "The system is expected to encounter a large area of environmental dry air as it approaches the Windward Islands, and development is not expected."
Coverage published Monday evening carries the earlier picture. WFLX, in a story updated Aug. 10, 2026 at 8:21 PM EDT under the headline "TROPICS: NHC monitoring 3 areas for development as hurricane season ramps up," reported the central tropical Atlantic disturbance at 10 percent over seven days.
That is not an accuracy failure by WFLX. Its 10 percent matched the outlook in force when the story published; the outlook that superseded it was issued the following morning.
The same holds for the figure that looks like a disagreement between outlets. WFLX also reported a broad low moving west over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic with a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days - the 70 percent figure the 800 PM Monday outlook carried for the Cabo Verde low. The outlook does not use WFLX's description, and matching the two rests on the shared figure and the timing; the labels pairing them are Daily Pol's. On the same day, Space Coast Daily published under the headline "National Hurricane Center Monitoring Three Atlantic Disturbances, One Has 60% Chance of Development" and reported a "20% chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium, 60% chance during the next seven days."
The two numbers are snapshots of a product that gets reissued, not competing accounts of one moment. The lead system's figures and description did not change between the Monday evening and Tuesday morning issuances: both place the low about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 30 percent and 70 percent. The 200 PM EDT Monday outlook retrieved for this piece describes the same three areas - the Cabo Verde low, a tropical wave midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and a trough near Bermuda - but the archived text captured here does not include its formation-chance lines, so the 20 percent and 60 percent figures are carried as Space Coast Daily reported them, not from the outlook itself.
Analysis, grounded in those texts: the percentages measure formation, not effect. As the Windward Islands wave's odds fell to near zero on Tuesday morning, the outlook added a hazard line for the people under it, saying locally heavy rain and gusty winds would be possible in the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. A story organized around a formation number would have reported that system as fading at the moment the outlook started describing rain over inhabited islands.
The three-system map also sits inside a season NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has marked down. Its update issued 6 August 2026 forecasts "7-13 Named Storms, including the 2 named storms recorded thus far", 2 to 6 hurricanes, and a "75% chance for a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a nominal 5% chance for an above-normal season".
What is checkable, and when: the Tuesday outlook states a depression will likely form from the Cabo Verde system during the latter half of this week. By Aug. 16 the NHC's own product record will show whether one did. Everything above is the record as of 800 AM EDT Tuesday, and that text is superseded by later issuances - nothing here describes the state of the outlook after that hour.